Sentiment as of Nov 1
-16
Fear & Greed 34, Fear. Fear.
Zero means a 50/50 tape. Positive means the crowd is leaning long.
checking
What 2026 did
Fear under −30 lined up with the February low and the June hawkish-hold selloff. Greed only showed up in late August and September, into the run that stalled near $87k. Today is still on that greedy side, not a fresh extreme.
Next print
Oct 28, 2:00pm ET. No dot plot. Press conference 2:30. Gray the two sessions before. Trade the path, not the word “hold.”
Mon Oct 26 · Tue Oct 27
Net sentiment
Weekly · Fear & Greed minus 50
Dashed line is 50Brass ring · FOMC weekRed ring · Sep 16 hike
Jan -19
Feb -40
Mar -36
Apr -27
May -16
Jun -34
Jul -25
Aug -5
Sep +17
X tape
The bar is 45 public posts that took a side. The lines are examples from that read, not one morning. A followed account can be in the sample. It is not limited to who you follow. The read refreshes about every six hours.
61% bullish45 posts · Oct 11, 12:06 AM PT39% bearish
- Bullish · Oct 11Fewer long-term Treasury auctions could ease yields, and bitcoin was named as a risk asset that would benefit.
- Bullish · Oct 10Bullish-crossover calls got loud into Saturday night, with a push through $83.5k aimed at $85k.
- Bearish · Oct 10The dump-is-over crowd is the liquidity. Thesis unchanged: toward $75k before any higher high.
- Bearish · Oct 10A prediction market flipped: more likely to break $70k than to reclaim $100k this year.
- Bearish · Oct 10One year after the wipeout, bitcoin is still about 32% under the pre-crash price. Ether and Solana are worse.
- Bearish · Oct 10A path that only reaches $160–180k in 2029, after a $125k top, is why one holder turned bearish.
- Bullish · Oct 10Still above the major trend averages, but a daily close has to hold $82k or $76k comes easy.
- Bullish · Oct 10A caller wanted $600k of bitcoin sold to pay off the house. The holder refused.
- Bearish · Oct 9Not done with the downside. The next one to two weeks still look bearish after the drop.
- Bullish · Oct 9Quantum risk would hit ordinary finance before bitcoin. The calm take is that the work is already underway.
Written book
Written through mid-September. Not the live X read above.
Bullish
- Week after Sep 16Priced-in hike did not break BTC. From the close before the hike to a week later, BTC was up about 12%. The violent day was Clarity, not 2:00pm.
- That same weekSpot ETF inflows stayed heavy. About $2.4B of net spot-ETF inflows in the week around the hike.
- Aug 23–30Sentiment crossed back above flat. Weekly net went from −16 to +16 in one week, then stayed positive into September, into the run that later stalled near $87k.
Bearish
- Sep 15Clarity Act failed to advance. Senate cloture missed. BTC fell about 3.3% that day, from roughly $78.2k to $75.6k. Bigger tape than the hike the next afternoon.
- Sep 16Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75–4.00. First hike since July 2023. Vote 12–0 under Warsh. About 90% priced. BTC wicked toward $75k and closed the day slightly green.
- Jun 17Hawkish hold, not a hike, sold BTC. Rate unchanged, 12–0. Dots moved from 3.4% to 3.8% and the cut bias came out. BTC fell about 4% toward $64k.
- Feb 12 and Feb 23Extreme fear sat on the year’s low zone. Fear & Greed printed 5. February average was 10.
FOMC, 2026
Statement is 2:00pm ET, presser 2:30. Read the day before, the print, and the next session as three different trades.
Jan 28
Powell
HOLD · 3.50–3.75 · 10–2
- Before
- Quiet
- Flat near $89.2k
- After
- Next day −5% to ~$84.5k
The statement was a non-event. The damage was the following session.
Mar 18
Powell
HOLD · SEP · 3.50–3.75 · 11–1
- Before
- ~$73.9k
- −3.6% to ~$71.2k
- After
- ~$69.9k
Dots still implied a cut (3.4%). BTC sold the decision day anyway.
Apr 29
Powell last
HOLD · 3.50–3.75 · 8–4
- Before
- ~$76.3k
- −0.7%
- After
- Back to ~$76.3k
Most dissents since 1992. Price ignored it.
Jun 17
Warsh first
HOLD hawkish · SEP · 3.50–3.75 · 12–0
- Before
- ~$65.6k
- −1.8% to ~$64.4k
- After
- ~$62.9k
The rate did not move. The path did. This is the meeting that mattered.
Jul 14–15
Warsh
Testimony · House / Senate
- Before
- ~$62.3k
- Jul 14 +4.4%
- After
- Flat the next day
Same morning as a soft CPI. Not a clean testimony trade.
Jul 29
Warsh
HOLD · 3.50–3.75 · 9–3
- Before
- ~$63.8k
- Flat
- After
- ~$64.7k
Three hawks wanted +25. BTC did not care.
Aug 28
Warsh
Jackson Hole · speech
- Before
- Still under flat
- Hike odds jumped
- After
- Sentiment already crossing up
Not a 2pm print. The rally was already on.
Sep 16
Warsh
HIKE +25 · SEP · 3.75–4.00 · 12–0
- Before
- Clarity dump −3.3%
- +0.7% near $76.1k
- After
- Week about +12%
The hike was the expected print. The bad news was the day before.
Oct 28
Warsh
NEXT · 2:00pm ET · no SEP
- Before
- Watch Mon–Tue
- Statement 2:00, presser 2:30
- After
- No new dots
A surprise hike or a dovish hold is the only thing that should reprice BTC hard.
Dec 9
Warsh
Scheduled · SEP · 2:00pm ET · dots
- Before
- —
- —
- After
- —
This is the meeting that can reset the 2027 path.
| Date | Decision | Before | On the print | After | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28Powell | HOLD · 3.50–3.75 · 10–2 | Quiet | Flat near $89.2k | Next day −5% to ~$84.5k | The statement was a non-event. The damage was the following session. |
| Mar 18Powell | HOLD · SEP · 3.50–3.75 · 11–1 | ~$73.9k | −3.6% to ~$71.2k | ~$69.9k | Dots still implied a cut (3.4%). BTC sold the decision day anyway. |
| Apr 29Powell last | HOLD · 3.50–3.75 · 8–4 | ~$76.3k | −0.7% | Back to ~$76.3k | Most dissents since 1992. Price ignored it. |
| Jun 17Warsh first | HOLD hawkish · SEP · 3.50–3.75 · 12–0 | ~$65.6k | −1.8% to ~$64.4k | ~$62.9k | The rate did not move. The path did. This is the meeting that mattered. |
| Jul 14–15Warsh | Testimony · House / Senate | ~$62.3k | Jul 14 +4.4% | Flat the next day | Same morning as a soft CPI. Not a clean testimony trade. |
| Jul 29Warsh | HOLD · 3.50–3.75 · 9–3 | ~$63.8k | Flat | ~$64.7k | Three hawks wanted +25. BTC did not care. |
| Aug 28Warsh | Jackson Hole · speech | Still under flat | Hike odds jumped | Sentiment already crossing up | Not a 2pm print. The rally was already on. |
| Sep 16Warsh | HIKE +25 · SEP · 3.75–4.00 · 12–0 | Clarity dump −3.3% | +0.7% near $76.1k | Week about +12% | The hike was the expected print. The bad news was the day before. |
| Oct 28Warsh | NEXT · 2:00pm ET · no SEP | Watch Mon–Tue | Statement 2:00, presser 2:30 | No new dots | A surprise hike or a dovish hold is the only thing that should reprice BTC hard. |
| Dec 9Warsh | Scheduled · SEP · 2:00pm ET · dots | — | — | — | This is the meeting that can reset the 2027 path. |
Activity
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Sentiment is the public crypto Fear & Greed index, shifted so 50 sits on zero. It is a regime map, not a day-trade trigger. Extreme fear lined up with the year’s low zone. Creeping greed lined up with the late run, not with an instant top. BTC levels are daily closes around each print, not a signal. The index refreshes from the public print. The X bar reuses one public read for six hours, then the page picks up the next copy on its own. Not advice.